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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, though analysts suggest the party stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a campaign focused on issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take several months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a inclusive coalition led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.